Chương 37: Apparently, I Knew This Would Happen

The morning after his second Iron Junction farm run, Matt woke up in Trailer C-87 to the familiar, comforting routine. Coffee. Perfect Temperature. A swift, efficient daily crafting batch. He didn't linger over the market listings today. He opened his laptop, planning to review his loadout for the morning run into Iron Junction. The digital planner loaded exactly where he had left it last night. FIVE FORTUNES Owned — 3 / 5 Policy — SELL Actual Behavior — NOT SELLING Matt stared at the screen for several seconds.

"…Good morning," Matt sighed. He glanced over at his secure storage box. Inside were the three iridescent, golden-tinted crystalline plates. FIVE FORTUNES: 3 / 5 The image of the screaming streamer from the WTFWTF video flashed unbidden into his mind. Five glowing S-rank Mana Stones. A billion-dollar jackpot. Matt immediately turned away from the box.

"No." The denial was becoming a reflexive habit. He forced his attention back to his planner. Today was a standard farm day. The objective was to generate reliable, high-volume throughput in the Freight Storage section of the Dungeon. He updated his objectives to reflect his current priorities. IRON JUNCTION — FARM RUN Sweeping Tempo — ACTIVE Freight Storage — PRIORITY Pickup Policy — ACTIVE Boss — NO Five Fortunes — DO NOT TARGET"Very important distinction," Matt told himself, highlighting the final line.

He was hunting monsters, not gambling tickets. He verified his COPY loadout. Yesterday's test had been incredibly successful. Sweeping Tempo — C Quick Frame — C Overmuscle — C Anchored Step remained securely in the Archive. His new pickup policy—ignoring low-value Magic items and only grabbing F-rank Mana Stones if he practically tripped over them—was fully integrated into his workflow. He checked his Status. He was Level 17, and he currently had two unspent Passive Points.

His Mana pool had felt the strain of the Sweeping Tempo clear speed yesterday, but he had successfully managed it with a single Blue Flask. The two Passive Points could wait. Today wasn't a build-planning day. He arrived at the Iron Junction Gate Plaza. The morning rush was in full swing, but Matt navigated the crowd with the ease of a local. He walked up to the Instance board. He didn't care about the Boss status today, nor did he need a specific Instance number.

He just wanted a healthy balance of players to keep the monster spawns active without overcrowding the routes. Instance 861 — 22/64 — Boss Alive"Twenty-two. Fine," Matt decided, stepping through the portal. He materialized in the massive underground freight terminal. The first pack of Rail Goblins charged him almost immediately. Matt didn't hesitate. He stepped into the swing. Cleave. Multistrike. The Sweeping Tempo buff stacked instantly to five.

The +20% Attack Speed kicked in, blurring his movements into a lethal, efficient rhythm. There was no fresh surprise today. He was simply using the tool exactly as intended. He pushed forward, intentionally not chasing the buff timer. When the six-second window expired between distant packs, he let it fall off. Buff uptime was no longer tempting. It was just another number. His pickup policy worked flawlessly. He ignored a rusty Normal sword.

He stepped directly over an F-rank Mana Stone to grab a stack of Crafting Currency. He saw another F-rank Stone sitting twenty yards away down a dead-end corridor. Matt glanced at it.

"Seventy dollars." He kept walking.

"…Per hour." Twenty minutes into the run, the first Card dropped from a shattered Yard Skeleton. THE EMPTY CAR Current Set: 3 / 3 SET COMPLETE"Good," Matt nodded, genuinely pleased. It was a guaranteed E-rank crafting base. He slipped the completed set into his pouch. He wasn't going to yell Exchange! in the middle of a Dungeon corridor.

"Later." Fifteen minutes later, a Cargo Brute dropped another Card. FREIGHT PAID IN FULL Current Set: 4 / 6 The steady, predictable Card income was deeply satisfying. The drop density of Iron Junction was easily outperforming Gravetide's raw monetary value in sheer volume. A few packs later, he picked up a Right of Way Card, bringing his total for that set to 3/4. He hadn't seen a Five Fortunes Card yet. He wasn't looking for one. A faint, golden glimmer caught his eye near a destroyed freight crate.

Matt paused, his heart skipping a beat. He walked over and picked it up. It was a pair of Rare leather gloves with a vaguely yellowish tint to the hide.

"…Good," Matt said, dropping them into his bag. He realized he felt a tiny, irrational pang of disappointment.

"No," Matt scolded himself instantly. He pushed deeper into the Freight Storage zone. He had been running for nearly an hour. The monster density was peaking. He engaged a massive pack: a dozen Rail Goblins, five Skeletons, and a Cargo Brute. He maxed his Sweeping Tempo stacks immediately, shredded the smaller enemies, and executed the Brute with a textbook Overmuscle Heavy Strike. He walked over to the ash pile. Resting on the concrete, shimmering with an unmistakable, iridescent golden light, was a Card.

Matt looked at it.

"…No," Matt said, adhering to his personal tradition. He picked it up. FIVE FORTUNES Set Size: 5 Reward: 5 Mana Stones of a Random Rank Current Set: 4 / 5 Matt stared at the number. When he had one, or two, or three, the set had felt incomplete. It was a long-term project. Four was different.

"…Four," Matt whispered. The System UI didn't care about his anxiety. 4 / 5 He forced his rational brain to take over. Gus was paying around a hundred dollars per Card. He now had four Cards. That was four hundred dollars of guaranteed, liquid cash. There was absolutely no reason to risk a guaranteed four hundred dollars on a random roll.

"Still selling," Matt declared firmly, sliding the Card into his pouch. He resumed his route. He didn't break his own rules. He didn't alter his path to hunt for larger packs. He didn't recklessly charge into dangerous areas hoping to force the final drop. But his internal perception had shifted. Every time a Card dropped, he checked the color before he checked the title. A gray, translucent Card dropped. The Empty Car.

"Good," Matt noted. Another gray Card dropped. Freight Paid in Full.

"Also good." His voice sounded slightly tighter. He was at 5/6 for the Freight Paid in Full set.

"One more of you too," Matt muttered.

"… Apparently everything is doing this today." Forty-five minutes passed. He cleared dozens of packs. He picked up crafting bases, raw Currency, and a handful of Magic items. His Mana dropped into the warning zone from sustained Cleave usage, and he calmly drank a Blue Flask. Stolen content warning: this content belongs on Royal Road. Report any occurrences. Problem managed. He didn't see another golden Card. A Cargo Brute finally dropped a thick, industrial-looking Card.

FREIGHT PAID IN FULL Current Set: 6 / 6 SET COMPLETE"Excellent," Matt breathed a sigh of relief. This was a safe, practical set. He checked his pouch. He had a completed set of The Empty Car. He had a completed set of Freight Paid in Full. And he had four out of five Five Fortunes. Two safe investments and a live grenade. He checked his time. He had been running for nearly two hours. His inventory was full of high-value bases and Currency. He had executed his route perfectly.

"Done," Matt decided. He turned toward the exit. He wasn't going to stay in the Dungeon for an extra hour just to chase a gambling ticket. He walked back along the cleared route, only engaging the packs that respawned directly in his path. He cleared a small group of Skeletons. No Card. He cleared a Switch Hound. A Rare helmet dropped. No Card. He was less than five minutes from the safest extraction zone.

He engaged what he assumed would be his final pack of the day: a handful of Goblins led by a single Cargo Brute. It was a trivial fight. He didn't even need to use a Flask. He walked over to the Brute's ash pile to collect the obligatory Mana Stone. Resting beneath the Stone was a thin, shimmering golden plate. Matt froze. He didn't even manage a No. He stood there for five full seconds, staring at the concrete.

"…No," Matt finally managed to say, his voice lacking any real conviction. He reached down and picked it up. FIVE FORTUNES Set Size: 5 Reward: 5 Mana Stones of a Random Rank Current Set: 5 / 5 SET COMPLETE Matt stared at the Card. He looked at the System prompt. He looked back at the Card. Gus's voice echoed with terrifying clarity in his mind. Until you have five.

"…Five," Matt whispered. He could do it right now. He could stand in the middle of the empty, rusted freight terminal, yell Exchange!, and the System would instantly resolve the gamble.

"Nope," Matt said immediately, shoving the Card into his pouch. If he actually rolled five S-rank Mana Stones in the middle of an E-rank Dungeon, he would have to carry $1. 65 billion of uninsured, highly recognizable assets back to the Gate Plaza. It was a logistical nightmare.

"If I'm going to make a bad decision, I'm at least making it somewhere with cameras," Matt reasoned. He pulled a Portal Scroll and snapped it before he could change his mind. He materialized in the Gate Plaza and walked straight back to Trailer C-87. He didn't unpack his Gear immediately. He sat down at his laptop and opened his planner.

IRON JUNCTION — FARM RUN Five Fortunes — 2 FOUND Five Fortunes Owned — 5 / 5 The Empty Car — SET COMPLETE Freight Paid in Full — SET COMPLETE Boss — NO Matt stared at the second line. Five Fortunes Owned — 5 / 5 He opened the National Market app on his phone and checked Gus's current buy board prices. Five Fortunes — $102 If he sold the five Cards to Gus, he would walk out of the shop with five hundred and ten dollars in guaranteed cash.

"Five hundred ten dollars," Matt said aloud. He compared it to the worst-case scenario. If he Exchanged the set and rolled F-rank, he would receive five F-rank Mana Stones. At roughly seventy dollars apiece, the total value would be around three hundred and fifty dollars. A guaranteed $510 versus a worst-case $350. The downside risk was $160.

"Sell," Matt decided firmly. He reached into his pouch, pulled out the completed stack of five golden Cards, and held them in his hand. He didn't put them in his To Sell bin.

"…I'm selling them," Matt told the empty room. Nobody argued with him. Late that afternoon, Matt walked into Gus's Full Set. Gus looked up from behind the counter, spotting Matt immediately.

"You're back."

"Business," Matt stated, walking up to the glass. He didn't pull the golden Cards out first. He pulled out the completed stack of three Empty Car Cards and set them on the counter.

"Sell or Exchange?" Gus asked, checking the market ticker. Matt had already Exchanged this set once to test the mechanic. He knew how it worked. He didn't need another random E-rank base right now; he needed liquidity.

"Sell," Matt said. He was proving a point to himself. He could complete a set and still execute a rational market transaction. Gus processed the sale, handing Matt the cash without comment. Matt placed the six Freight Paid in Full Cards on the glass.

"This one I want to Exchange," Matt said. The reward was a Crafting Currency Bundle, which directly fed his daily production line. It was an operational necessity.

"See? Healthy relationship with Cards," Gus smiled.

"Don't make it weird," Matt replied. He gathered the six Cards in his hand.

"Exchange." The System light flared. The Cards vanished, replaced by a heavy leather pouch filled with various standard crafting orbs. REWARD GENERATED CRAFTING CURRENCY BUNDLE Matt's AR estimated the market value of the bundle at roughly $250. Selling the Cards individually would have netted him $228.

"Twenty-two dollars positive," Matt noted, pocketing the Currency.

"That's your reaction?" Gus asked incredulously.

"Yes."

"Anything else?" Gus asked, leaning on the counter.

"No," Matt answered instantly. Gus looked down at Matt's right hand. It was resting on his Dungeon pouch, which was still noticeably bulging.

"Matt," Gus said slowly.

"No."

"I didn't ask anything," Gus pointed out.

"You were going to." Matt sighed, his shoulders slumping slightly. He reached into the pouch and pulled out the five iridescent, golden plates. He set them heavily on the counter. The System UI hovered instantly. FIVE FORTUNES 5 / 5 SET COMPLETE Gus stared at the stack.

"Five," Gus said simply.

"Don't," Matt warned him. Gus laughed, a deep, rumbling sound.

"Still buying." He pointed at the digital board behind him. It read $102.

"Five hundred ten," Gus offered.

"Good," Matt nodded. Gus reached out his hand to accept the Cards. Matt pushed the stack across the glass toward Gus. He was fully prepared to sell them. He wanted to sell them. His fingers stopped halfway across the counter. He didn't let go of the Cards. Gus didn't pull them. He just waited. The shop was quiet. The hundreds of ordinary Cards in the display cases sat motionless. Matt stared at the golden stack. The image of the screaming streamer flared in his mind. Five glowing Stones. S-RANK MANA STONE ×5"…

One point six five billion," Matt whispered involuntarily.

"Reference value," Gus corrected softly.

"Not helping." Gus stood up straight, his expression turning serious. He didn't push. He was a dealer, but he wasn't a predator.

"Five hundred ten is real, Matt."

"I know."

"The odds are terrible."

"I know."

"You already know what the rational decision is."

"I know," Matt repeated, his grip tightening slightly on the Cards.

"Then sell them," Gus advised gently. Matt fell silent. He ran the logic through his head one final time. The System didn't publish the exact odds. The only data available was community sourced.

"There's one problem," Matt said slowly.

"There really isn't," Gus sighed.

"I've never personally tested the Five Fortunes reward table."

"You personally watched a video of someone getting five S-rank Stones," Gus reminded him.

"That's somebody else's sample," Matt argued.

"…Oh no," Gus muttered, realizing what was happening.

"I'm not gambling," Matt rationalized, pulling the Cards back slightly.

"Of course."

"I'm testing the mechanic."

"You already tested Exchange with The Empty Car," Gus pointed out accurately. Matt hesitated. It was a fatal flaw in his argument.

"I'm testing the Five Fortunes rank roll," Matt corrected quickly.

"With one sample?" Gus asked, raising an eyebrow.

"…Yes."

"That's not data, Matt." Matt cringed. It was his own logic being used against him. Two drops did not establish a rate.

"I don't appreciate you using statistics against me," Matt grumbled.

"You're the one doing it." Matt looked at the five golden Cards.

"Just one Exchange," Matt promised.

"For science?" Gus asked dryly.

"For data."

"Obviously." A regular customer browsing near the back of the shop looked up.

"Five Fortunes?"

"Don't," Gus warned the customer.

"I didn't say anything," the customer mumbled, backing away.

"…Why does everyone say that?" Matt asked the ceiling. Gus leaned over the counter, offering Matt one final out.

"Last chance. Five hundred ten dollars." Matt looked at the Cards. He knew it was a bad idea. He knew the math didn't support it.

"I know," Matt said softly. He pulled the Cards together in his hands.

"Exchange." The System light flared, engulfing the five golden Cards in a brilliant, blinding flash. For a fraction of a second, Matt's rational brain shut down. His heart spiked. He was a billionaire. He was going to buy an S-rank travel trailer. The light faded. Resting in his hands were five small, dull, barely glowing rocks. REWARD GENERATED F-RANK MANA STONE ×5 Absolute, crushing silence filled the shop. Matt stared at the Stones. Gus stared at the Stones. The customer in the back stared at the Stones.

"…I knew it," Matt whispered. Gus's mouth twitched. He was fighting a losing battle against a massive grin.

"I knew it!" Matt said louder, his voice cracking slightly. He slammed the Stones onto the counter.

"I knew it! I knew it!" Matt yelled at the ceiling. Gus broke. He laughed, a loud, booming bark of amusement.

"Stop," Matt demanded.

"I'm not saying anything," Gus wheezed.

"You're laughing."

"That's different." Matt stared furiously at the five F-rank Stones. At seventy dollars apiece, he had just generated roughly three hundred and fifty dollars in commodity value. If he had sold the Cards to Gus ten seconds ago, he would have five hundred and ten dollars. He ran the math.

"One hundred sixty dollars," Matt calculated grimly.

"Could've been worse," Gus offered.

"That is not comforting."

"Could've been S," Gus added helpfully.

"Also not comforting," Matt shot back. That was exactly the thought that led to buying a second set.

"Congratulations," Gus smiled.

"On what?"

"Your first Five Fortunes Exchange."

"I lost one hundred sixty dollars," Matt pointed out.

"You spent one hundred sixty dollars on entertainment," Gus corrected.

"That's worse," Matt decided instantly. He gathered the five F-rank Stones. He hadn't lost everything. The Stones were highly liquid; he could sell them across the street. He had simply converted $510 of potential value into $350 of actual value. The opportunity loss was painful, but it wasn't bankrupting.

"Fine," Matt muttered, shoving the Stones into his bag. But as he zipped the pouch closed, a tiny, insidious thought crept into the back of his mind. The first roll was F. The next roll might not be. What if the next set was E? Or C? Or B? Matt froze. He realized exactly what he was thinking.

"…Oh." Gus leaned over the counter, his eyes sharp.

"There it is."

"What?" Matt asked defensively.

"The second Set," Gus said.

"No."

"You were thinking about it," Gus grinned.

"I was not."

"You made the face."

"I don't have a gambling face," Matt insisted, grabbing his bags.

"You do now," Gus laughed. Matt turned and marched toward the door.

"See you when you get five more!" Gus called after him.

"No," Matt yelled, pushing the door open.

"Sure!" Matt didn't look back.

"No." Matt walked back into Trailer C-87 and locked the door. He dumped the five F-rank Mana Stones onto his desk. They sat there, dull and uninspiring. He opened his laptop and pulled up his planner. He created a new, highly specific entry. FIVE FORTUNES — EXCHANGE TEST Sets Exchanged — 1 Cards Consumed — 5 Foregone Sale Value — ~$510 Reward — F-rank Mana Stone ×5 Reward Reference Value — ~$350 Opportunity Cost — ~$160 He added a statistical note underneath. Sample Size — 1 Statistical Significance — None"…

Correct," Matt nodded, forcing his rational brain back into the driver's seat. He added a final evaluation. Decision Quality — BAD He paused, thinking about the adrenaline spike right before the light faded. He had actually enjoyed the three seconds of pure, unadulterated hope. He typed a new line. Entertainment Value — IRRELEVANT He opened his overarching policy document. CARD POLICY Sell valuable singles. Complete cheap practical sets. Do not gamble. He highlighted the Do not gamble line and deleted it.

It was too vague. He needed specific, actionable restrictions. He typed a new directive in bold font. Five Fortunes — SELL He added a secondary directive just to be safe. Do Not Exchange Five Fortunes Again"There," Matt said, closing the document. He had learned his lesson. He had tested the table, taken his $160 loss, and definitively proven that the house always wins. He was done. A few seconds later, he casually opened the National Card Market tab on his browser. Five Fortunes.

The price had dipped slightly to $100. He casually clicked the tab to view completed Set listings. He closed the browser immediately.

"No," Matt commanded himself. He waited a beat.

"Absolutely not." He didn't have any Five Fortunes Cards left. His inventory was 0/5. He was safe from himself.

"Much better," Matt smiled, leaning back in his chair. His eyes fell on the desk. Sitting in a neat row were the five F-rank Mana Stones. He remembered the WTFWTF video again. S-RANK MANA STONE ×5 It was the exact same reward structure. Five Mana Stones. The only difference was the single, random rank calculation generated in the split-second before the light faded. Matt stared at the dull, gray Stones on his desk.

"…I knew it," Matt whispered. He opened his planner, staring at the results of his failed experiment. FIVE FORTUNES Sets Exchanged — 1 Result — F-rank ×5 Future Policy — SELL Matt looked at the five Stones.

"I knew it," he repeated softly. He closed the planner. Then, after a long moment, he opened it again and added one final line. Do not collect a second sample.