Chương 349: 344. Trevalo - I

Trevalo gave a small chuckle that sounded weary.

"Just be glad I was able to bring even this much, milord. I know that you wanted me to load all of it with food, so of course I tried. But it's hard to buy grain in bulk in Cinran these days. To get even these four wagons worth of wheat, I had to call in every favor I had, visit nearly every bulk dealer in the town, and still couldn't fill the rest. Even then, I had to pay some really high prices to buy this wheat, which is why the best I can do is five gold and six silvers per sack of wheat.

"That's outrageous!" the majordomo exclaimed.

"You have to give us a discount on that!" The young merchant shook his head reluctantly.

"Not in my hands, with the prices I bought it at. I am barely making any profit on this deal as it is. And I'll warn you in advance—even though the prices are already higher than they've ever been, everyone in Cinran expects food prices to rise even more before the next harvest, so no merchant wants to sell large amounts right now." Duvas frowned.

"Why? There's always been enough grain in Cinran." Trevalo shrugged.

"It used to be so in the past, but not anymore, with the bad harvests in recent years. And besides, isn't four wagons going to be more than enough for you, after what I'd brought the last time? It's already unusual that your manor is buying nearly everything itself instead of the two village merchants buying it. I'm curious about why you even need so much grain all of a sudden...

I've been the primary grain supplier for this village for years, and I know that Tiranat never used to buy more than four or five wagon loads in a month. I usually brought four myself, and someone else brought the rest. Counting the three wagons of wheat I brought last time and these four now, that's already a lot more than you used to buy. Shouldn't that be enough to last you this month?" Kivamus kept his face even, though his thoughts were already moving.

Even though a lot of grain had been needed for sowing, he couldn't tell Trevalo the real reason—the rising population from the refugees and former slaves who had arrived quietly through the winter and spring, and were still coming every week or so—sometimes with their families, while sometimes alone after running from their slave masters. With the village population now approaching nearly 450 people, it had already increased by around a third of what it used to be before the winter.

However, he didn't know Trevalo as well as he knew Pydaso, and any talk of Tiranat taking in refugees and freed slaves might spread in the wrong ears in Cinran if the young merchant gossiped about it. That could cause all kinds of problems for them, and he didn't want to risk it.

"I have my reasons," Kivamus said calmly, " and you're free to sell to the village merchants as usual. It's not like I'm forcing you to only sell to us. But they don't have the coin these days, and I won't let my people go hungry waiting for them to buy it. So I'm using my own gold for this." He paused, thinking about an improvised reason which would satisfy the merchant about the higher amounts.

"The truth is, the population here was undercounted in the past. People barely ate two meals a day, and some starved every winter since there simply wasn't enough grain to feed everyone. You might have heard of that before." Trevalo nodded slowly.

"I've heard about such things happening in nearly every village in the winter months."

"Well, I don't want that to happen ever again," Kivamus said.

"Most days, people get three meals a day in Tiranat. We've also done a proper count recently, and based on that, we'll need at least six wagon loads of wheat every month instead of the four we used to buy. Maybe even seven. You've still brought a good amount, but if you can manage to bring more, I'll buy it. And you should know this won't be a one-time thing. You'll find steady business here every month." Trevalo rubbed the back of his neck.

"I didn't know that," he said finally.

"I can't imagine how you'll afford that much grain every month with prices like these. But business is business, and more trade's always welcome." He exhaled.

"That said, I don't think it's even possible for me to buy that much wheat for you in Cinran." This tale has been pilfered from Royal Road. If found on Amazon, kindly file a report. The majordomo frowned.

"What are you talking about?" The merchant shrugged.

"Let me explain why. From what I know, the town of Cinran needs around 35 wagon loads of grain every month just to feed its people. So during harvest season, the merchants of the town buy from the nearby farms and store enough in their warehouses to sell about 50 wagon loads a month throughout the year. That gives a surplus of about 15 wagons a month for traders like me to carry to smaller places—Tiranat, Kirnos, or some other mining villages which don't grow enough food for themselves.

That worked fine in normal years." Trevalo shrugged.

"But you know that the last two harvests have been pretty bad. Some of the villages around Cinran—ones that usually sold their extra grain—didn't even grow enough to feed themselves last time. So their barons are keeping their own grain for themselves, and instead of selling to Cinran, they're even buying from it this year. That's the problem. Places that used to add to the surplus of the town are now taking from it.

Basically, the supplier villages have become net buyers instead of net sellers, if you know what I mean." Kivamus nodded grimly.

"Yes. I understand exactly what you mean." The merchant rested both elbows on his knees, as his tone turned more serious.

"From my estimate - and I should say that I obviously don't have any official numbers on this, only what I've heard in the markets - Cinran's merchants were able to buy a much smaller total quantity of grain during last year's harvest. That's why, for this year - until the next harvest in late autumn - they'll only be able to sell about 40 or so wagon loads a month instead of the usual 50.

They can't even get access to more grain to sell because most of the nearby barons of the farming villages have stopped selling entirely and are keeping their grain for their own people." Kivamus listened silently while Duvas started noting down figures in his ledger. Trevalo went on, "Now, I told you that Cinran needs around 35 wagons of wheat every month just to feed the town.

Maybe a little less these days—some of the poorer folk are eating twice a day instead of three times, or maybe even once because of the higher prices. But still, that leaves only a handful of wagons left over. Out of those 5 surplus wagon loads of grain available, this time I've already brought 4 here, because you were willing to pay higher rates, while the rest is being sold to other richer barons who can afford to pay even more. That's basically the whole surplus gone."

Kivamus sat back in his chair, his eyes unfocused for a moment. He could already see the chain of consequences forming—rising prices, tighter trade, and hungry mouths. The room stayed quiet, only the sound of the wind against the shutters breaking it. The merchant sighed, spreading his hands.

"You can see the problem now. The merchants in Cinran know exactly how tight it's gotten. If I try to buy more than my usual four wagons next time, they'll just raise the price further—maybe above six gold per wagon. And it's only going to get worse as the months go by. I wouldn't be surprised if the Count soon puts limits on selling grain to traders hailing from outside Cinran.

Even then, the harvest time is still around 6 months away, so I think you should be fine for the next few months as long as you are willing to pay the higher prices. But as the stores of wheat in the town go down further - since the merchants will obviously try selling it in the black market to the highest bidder - it is possible that the Count will completely prohibit selling any wheat outside the town. After all, no ruler wants food riots in his town."

Kivamus frowned, dreading the day their only source of grain might stop selling to them. That thought made the mood in the hall feel somber.

"What do you suggest then? You must already have noticed that we have started farming here, but we still need to buy grain to feed the villagers until the harvest. Even after that, we'll likely continue buying wheat from the outside to make up for any shortfall. I can't have people starving again, not after all the work we've done. Just the thought that we might not be able to buy any wheat after a few months is…" He stopped himself, shaking his head.

"It's not something I can accept." Trevalo stayed quiet for a moment, drumming his fingers lightly against his knee as if thinking it through.

"Tell you what," he said finally, "I've been trading grain all my life, and I do have some contacts in Ulriga. If you can give me a written guarantee that you'll buy whatever I bring, I can travel there for you and arrange to bring wheat from the city. I usually only trade between Cinran and the nearby villages, but I'll make the trip if you make it worth my while. Of course, the wheat will still be just as expensive, but at least you'll have all the grain you want." Duvas looked up from the ledger.

"Ulriga's a big city, everyone knows that. But the harvest has been bad everywhere. Are you sure they'll have enough to sell to us?"