Chương 441: 436. Inner Circle

345. Trevalo - II Trevalo laughed—a deep, confident laugh that filled the hall.

"You must be joking! Ulriga is enormous—far, far bigger than Cinran! It's the second largest city in the kingdom, maybe the third largest in all of Cilaria after Rutodan in Girnalica and our capital Dorastiz. If I had to guess, I'd say Ulriga consumes something like 300 wagon loads of grain every month, maybe more. And that's just inside the city walls." Kivamus nodded faintly, remembering his own journey from there to Tiranat before last winter.

Even after leaving the city gates, he'd passed row after row of small houses, shops, and roadside stalls—almost like a whole second town stretching along the roads outside the walls. The simple reason for it was that living inside the city walls had become so expensive by now that only the relatively rich people could afford to live there at this point. The rest of the people had moved out to houses outside the walls to save on rent and other costs of living. Trevalo caught his expression and grinned.

"You've seen it, then. The people living outside the walls probably add up to another half of the city's population. If you include them, Ulriga might easily be producing and consuming over 400 wagon loads of wheat a month. The bad harvest and the high prices might have made it lower, but the city of Ulriga is not called the biggest port in the kingdom without a good reason. They can always import whatever they need, whether from the northern provinces or from other countries outside of Cilaria."

The merchant shrugged.

"So yes, the harvest might've been bad there too, but Ulriga can always buy its way out of trouble. They certainly have the coin for it. Between imports and what the farms near the city produce, I'd say they handle something close to 500 wagon loads of grain every month. Even if they're only importing this year instead of exporting, it's still a vastly bigger market compared to Cinran, which needs just 35 wagon loads to feed itself.

So, providing just a few extra wagons of wheat for your village wouldn't even make the big traders in Ulriga blink at it." Kivamus leaned forward, listening closely. This already seemed like a possible solution to their problems.

"So, in the coming months," Trevalo said, "if the situation in Cinran gets worse and the Count completely forbids selling grain outside the town until the next harvest, you can still get your supply from Ulriga. Even if you buy your whole requirement of 6 or 7 wagons a month from them, it would be less than nothing to their traders. I'm even willing to go there and handle the trade for you—but I'll need a written guarantee, with your seal on the paper." He shrugged.

"Unless I'm sure that you'll buy the grain when I bring it, I simply won't take the risk." Duvas and Kivamus exchanged a look. The idea was tempting—and risky. But it might be their only path forward if Cinran closed its gates. Kivamus nodded slowly.

"If it comes to that, you'll have your guarantee," he said.

"For now, let's hope Cinran doesn't make that decision too soon." Trevalo smiled faintly.

"Hope is good, my lord. But in my line of work, I've learned not to count on it for long." Kivamus thought for a moment before nodding.

"Alright, I think it might be good to prepare for that in advance anyway. We have a few other merchants we buy grain from, and if they bring me wheat at a lower price, I won't be able to say no to them. So, to leave my options open, I'm willing to give you a written guarantee that I'll buy five wagon loads of wheat—fifty sacks—from you every month at a pre-agreed price, whether you bring it from Cinran or Ulriga. This agreement will last until the next harvest. After that, we can renegotiate it or cancel the deal.

My guess is that Tiranat will need more wheat than this, but for anything above those five wagon loads, I'll have to buy from whoever offers the lowest price. Whether it's you or someone else won't matter beyond that limit." Trevalo thought for a while before nodding.

"That works for me. Getting a guaranteed sale of fifty sacks every month will be worth it, even with the higher costs of going as far as Ulriga." The narrative has been stolen; if detected on Amazon, report the infringement.

"Good," Kivamus said.

"However, for reasons I can't tell you right now, when you visit Ulriga, I want you to make it seem that you're buying the grain for Cinran instead of my village. I don't want Tiranat's name highlighted anywhere right now, even if it's just about buying wheat from that far away. But Cinran's a big town; and no one in Ulriga will think twice if you say the grain is for them." Trevalo gave a puzzled smile.

"That's a strange request. I don't think the big traders in Ulriga will even care about where a few wagon loads of grain are headed, but I don't mind. If anyone asks, I'll say it's for Cinran." He leaned back.

"In fact, you may have guessed this already, but doing this can also help you sell more coal—that is, if you can produce enough. There isn't much demand for it in Cinran this summer, and that town is your only major market, apart from what little might be bought by the village of Kirnos. But Ulriga City is far larger and needs much more coal. They buy from many mining villages like yours and even import by sea when needed. They'll take every lump of coal you can mine.

As long as you can produce more, I can sell all of it in Ulriga for you." Kivamus remembered that Pydaso had told him it took nearly twenty days for a round trip between Tiranat and Ulriga traveling by wagons. He also recalled that Tiranat usually sold around 40 wagon loads of coal every month.

"Including loading and unloading days, going there would take about twenty days for a round trip by road," he said.

"That won't help us much, even if you sell in a bigger market. That kind of schedule means just three trips every two months. You'll only need to take five wagons there for the wheat I'm buying, but even if you take a much bigger caravan of ten wagons to Ulriga, the travel time means you can sell only thirty wagon loads of coal to Ulriga every two months. That's fifteen per month on average.

Compared to the twelve you already sell to Cinran with your six wagons, that's only three extra wagon loads of sale for us—barely an improvement. Taking an even bigger caravan is an option, but it would only make you an easier target on such a long journey, especially if bandits notice a regular route and schedule." Trevalo shook his head.

"That's not what I'm thinking. I don't have to travel the whole way by wagon. If you can guarantee me regular business, I can skip trading with other small villages and become your primary wheat and coal trader. For that, I can even lease a boat in Cinran. Rowing boats are reliable in any weather, but they would be far too expensive for bulk cargo like coal, so it will be better to lease a sailing boat."

"How long will that route take?" Duvas asked. Trevalo shrugged.

"It takes me two days to reach Cinran from here if I hurry, three if I travel at a normal pace. On that forest road, a larger caravan might be better anyway. That leaves taking the coal from Cinran to Ulriga. I am no sailor, but I still know that the wind changes every season. It blows from the northeast of Cilaria in winter and reverses direction in the summer. So how long it'll take depends on that." Kivamus wished Tiranat was located next to a river, or that steamships worked on that river route.

He had no doubt that they would get there eventually, but not anytime soon.

"Just give me an estimate so I can see if it would be worth it," he said.

"I know the time'll vary." Trevalo thought for a moment, rubbing his chin.

"Well, I have a friend who works as a deckhand on a boat that runs that route. I'm only telling you what he told me once. Going downriver should take maybe four to five days this time of year—spring doesn't have much wind to help. To save on costs, we also won't use horse tows along the banks when going downriver because it'll be too expensive for bulk cargo like coal, and the flow of river will be enough anyway. With good wind it could be done in under three days, but that's rare in this season.

Of course, coming back upriver will take longer. We'll have to use horses for towing on the return journey, which adds to the expense, but even then, it'll take at least a week to return to Cinran without any favorable wind - which we can't count on, especially in spring. It'll help a bit that the boat will be lighter on the way back, since I'll be carrying much less wheat than the coal I'll be taking there."

"This still doesn't sound much better," Kivamus said after thinking for a moment.

"From what you've described, that's three days from here to Cinran, then around five days from Cinran to Ulriga. Add a couple of days there to unload the coal and sell it, as well as to buy wheat and load it back on the boat. Then another week to come back upriver, and three more days from Cinran to here. That's twenty days for each round trip.

So we're back to where we started—three trips every two months, which means we'll still get to sell only 15 wagons of coal a month, even with 10 wagons in your caravan instead of the six you use now. That's compared to you selling 12 wagon loads to Cinran per month currently, which is hardly any improvement - once again." He scratched his chin, thinking.

"This won't work… How big are those boats anyway? I saw some when I came here, but you'd know better."